Friday, July 20, 2007

When do we reach saturation point with the low cost airlines?

Are we getting close to saturation point with some of the routes operated by the low cost carriers (LCC)? It seems that they are having to search further afield for viable new routes, which was originally said not to work with the low cost model. Take Funchal in Madeira as a case in point. Yesterday easyJet announced two new routes from Stansted and Bristol starting in October. Funchal is about 600 miles south west of Portugal, a fairly traditional and you would think mature travel destination that has happily managed with charter flights and the scheduled services by British Airways and TAP from Gatwick and Heathrow respectively. Now there are to be daily flights from Stansted and three times weekly flights from Bristol. These join the new FlyGlobespan services from Aberdeen and Edinburgh which are once weekly. This means potentially 12 planeloads per week, have the sums been done correctly?
What about flights to Krakow, two new routes yesterday from easyJet. Now to us Krakow is hardly the season's hot tourist destination but easyJet, Skyeurope, Ryanair, Jet2, Centralwings as well as BA all fly there from the UK, on fifteen different routes. We know there's probably more Polish people visiting and working in the UK than the Government is letting on, but that's a lot of seats to fill.
We've also noticed some of the LCC's are dropping routes. They seem to make a lot less fuss about this than when they announce new routes! More planes are coming on stream and they seem to be scratching around for viable new routes to fly. Load factors and prices are down, the only way out seems to be to fly further, so let's try Tel Aviv (Thomsonfly), Sharm el Sheikh (FlyGlobespan), Funchal (see above), or if you're coming from a slightly different model New York and Bermuda (Zoom).

Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Virgin Atlantic going forward?

There has been recent press speculation that Singapore Airlines, one of the largest airlines in the world, is thinking of trying to offload the 49% of the shares that it owns in Virgin Atlantic. Singapore paid around £600m for the stake in Virgin seven years ago which was of course before the airline world was turned upside down by the events of 9/11. Since then there has been some code sharing between the airlines, but nothing much in the way of dividends, and Singapore are perhaps wondering if they could find a better home for the £600m. Trouble is they might have difficulty extracting the cash, Sir Richard Branson has said that he might buy the stake back, but we're not sure he has that much tucked under the mattress.
Another large airline may be interested, but with only 49% and therefore no controlling interest up for grabs, what would be the attraction?
bmi has been mooted as a partner for Virgin several times in the past, but they seem to be ploughing their own furrow quite nicely thank you after acquiring BMED, which we still can't quite believe BA allowed to be sold from under their noses.
Maybe Singapore will try and float their stake but that could prove more difficult than it sounds, perhaps in the meantime they could try and achieve more on the operational front when the Open Skies agreement kicks in.